A | 加息之声骤然兴起！ 今日中午时分，韩国加息预期突然加重。日本三菱日联金融集团将韩国央行加息预期提前至8月，并倾向于韩国央行将“连续加息”。星展银行经济学家Taimur Baig和Radhika Rao预计，韩国央行将在8月会议上将基准利率上调25个基点至3.00%。 Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has ordered the state’s National Guard to install a barrier in some parts along the Texas/New Mexico state line. Officials say guard members have been placing concertina wire in an area close to Sunland Park, New Mexico, which shares a border with El Paso, Texas.Footage shot by KVIA shows some of the fencing running along the Rio Grande.ABC News has reached out to Texas officials, who have not yet provided an estimate of how much fencing is being installed.Abbott says the barrier is meant to deter migrants who cross from Mexico into New Mexico before heading to El Paso.“Texas installs fencing along NEW Mexico border. Our barriers around El Paso forced the migrants crossing illegally to enter into New Mexico. They then entered into El Paso from there. To end that, we are building a barrier on the New Mexico border,” the governor posted Sunday on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.In a statement given to ABC News, the Texas Military Department (TMD) said the Texas National Guard is “fortifying” the border between the two states.“The Texas National Guard has heavily fortified the border in El Paso with 18 miles of concertina wire. We are now fortifying the border between Texas and New Mexico to block migrants who are entering New Mexico illegally and then crossing into Texas. The effort in El Paso was bolstered by the recent deployment of the Texas Tactical Border Force to El Paso. The Texas National Guard remains focused on operations to prevent, deter, and interdict transnational criminal activity and illegal immigration along the border,” the TMD public affairs office said.A spokesperson for New Mexico Rep. Gabe Vasquez says state officials were not warned about the governor’s plans.A statement given to ABC News by Vasquez said, in part, that the barrier is unconstitutional.“However, this is one of the many political stunts that the Texas governor has cooked up to demonize immigrants and that provides no real long-term solution to the crisis that we're facing. Governor Abbott has done this before. He has put up an illegal border wall with shipping containers, then he conned migrants into taking buses to other states without their clear consent, then he put up a death trap on the Rio Grande that drowned innocent migrants seeking asylum, and now, his latest stunt is putting up a barrier between Texas and New Mexico,” Vasquez said.Abbott is facing an ongoing lawsuit over his decision to install a floating barrier in the Rio Grande on the U.S. and Mexico border. The state is arguing that they did not need permission from the federal government to install buoys along a 1,000-foot stretch of the Rio Grande in Eagle Pass, Texas.The governor’s office has not responded to an ABC News inquiry about whether Texas officials discussed Abbott's plans with their New Mexico counterparts.The Texas Military Department, Department of Public Safety, and the governor’s office did not answer when asked how much of the planned 18-miles-long wire fencing has been placed and if more is planned.“The state stands ready to assist as requested by federal or local partners to ensure individuals are treated with compassion and respect while maintaining public safety. We encourage Gov. Abbott to turn his attention away from a never-ending stream of political stunts and toward working in earnest for the people of the state he was elected to represent,” said Caroline Sweeney, a spokesperson for New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.In a joint statement, the Democratic Party chairs of both Texas and New Mexico called for the barrier to be removed. “Shame on Greg Abbott for using public tax dollars to uplift his dangerous approach to border security, and infringing upon Texans’ and New Mexicans’ right to move freely across state lines. Texas and New Mexico Democrats condemn Abbott’s razor wire fencing along our state borders, and call for its removal effective immediately,” their statement read in part.At an event hosted last month by the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, Abbott said that even if Texas was able to stop all unlawful entries through the Texas-Mexico border, some would still be coming in from New Mexico.“Not only are we building border barriers between the border of Texas and Mexico, we're also having now to build border barriers between Texas and New Mexico,” he said.。 在韩国加息预期提升之时，澳大利亚第二大养老基金建立了多年来规模最大的日元超配头寸，押注市场低估了日本央行加息的可能性。而更让人意外的是澳大利亚和欧洲，花旗集团认为，澳大利亚储备银行通胀预测可能偏离预期，9月加息风险上升。 欧洲央行执行委员会成员施纳贝尔今日更是直言，鉴于经济韧性，必须进一步提高利率。
B | 加息预期突然提升 今天市场出现了一个很有意思的现象，几个发达经济体的加息预期突然全面提升。
C | 首先是韩国。星展银行经济学家Taimur Baig和Radhika Rao预计，韩国央行将在8月会议上将基准利率上调25个基点至3.00%，同时有较大空间将2026年GDP增长预期从目前的2.6%上调至约3.5%、将2027年CPI通胀预期从目前的2.3%上调至接近3.0%。他们指出，上半年经济增长强于预期、核心通胀持续以及房价上涨均构成支持因素。
D | 日本三菱日联金融集团更是倾向于韩国央行将“连续加息”。该机构近日预测，韩国央行将在本月再次加息25个基点。 其次是日本。高盛将日本央行加息预期明显前移，认为9月会议可能成为政策转折点，汇率稳定正在取代工资数据，成为最紧迫的变量。高盛日本经济学家Tomohiro Ota在8月25日研报中指出，现在预计日本央行将在9月加息，此前预期为2027年1月；之后预计在2027年1月和7月分别加息，政策利率升至1.75%。 澳大利亚第二大养老基金建立了多年来规模最大的日元超配头寸。管理约3700亿澳元（2650亿美元）退休储蓄的澳大利亚退休信托高级投资组合经理Jimmy Louca表示，过去六个月，随着日元兑美元走弱至接近160，该基金不断增加这一头寸。在许多投资者寻求卖出日元之际，这是一笔少见的日元看涨押注。
E | 澳大利亚和欧洲的加息预期也意外变强。
F | 花旗集团经济学家法拉兹·赛义德表示，7月份强劲的通胀数据意味着第三季度环比通胀率将超过澳大利亚储备银行此前预期的0.8%的涨幅。
G | 花旗集团此前一直预期澳储行将在11月加息25个基点；在下周公布第二季度GDP数据之前，赛义德现在更加确信澳储行今年仍需再次加息，并认为9月份加息的风险相当大，而且加息次数可能更多而非更少。 欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔更是表示，由于中东冲突旷日持久，加之欧元区经济表现意外强劲，给通胀带来上行风险，利率必须进一步上调。消费者价格涨幅可能在“一段较长时期”内超过2%，如果等到这种影响传导至工资后才采取行动，政策制定者将落后于形势。施纳贝尔警告称，除石油之外的能源价格压力正变得更加持久。鉴于欧洲天然气库存水平偏低，天然气市场的走势尤其令人担忧，这给通胀带来了实质性的上行风险。 美国的“相悖”动作 对于全球市场来说，美国的动向可能才是决定因素。 据英国金融时报报道，美国财长贝森特干预债券市场的举措，与美联储遏制通胀的努力背道而驰。贝森特意外干预美债市场，令收益率先跌后涨，引发的市场反应令沃什周五在杰克逊霍尔的演讲面临更大的压力。美联储主席沃什此前一直强调，投资者应该更多依据经济数据和市场价格来判断，而不是等待美联储前瞻指引来告诉市场未来利率走势。 如今，外界担忧，如果贝森特控制收益率的努力持续无效，美联储可能也会面临介入市场的压力。
H | 沃什和贝森特都是亿万富豪斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒的门生，两人经常会面，据悉关系融洽。不过，外界目前的印象是，两者各自领导的财政部与美联储“正朝着相反的方向前进”。 此前不久，美国宏观研究机构Bianco Research创始人、长期跟踪美国债券市场的Jim Bianco在Bankless播客表示，需要美联储明确而可信的抗通胀立场，甚至重新加息，才可能压低长期债券持有人要求的期限溢价，让长端收益率回落。美联储降的是短端利率，而房贷、企业长期融资和股票估值跟的是10年期、30年期美债收益率，这一轮两者分了家。原因不在增长，而在可信度。 景顺亚太区环球市场策略师赵耀庭却认为，与其关注全球各地央行究竟会减息还是加息25个基点，长期利率持续上升的趋势更值得重视。长端收益率上升已削弱美联储进一步加息的必要性。美国整体借贷成本普遍上升，金融环境亦已收紧，这意味着债券市场实际上正在代美联储发挥收紧政策的作用。
（文章来源：券商中国）。
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