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Russia's Potential Cut in Grain Exports Won't Lead to Major Problems in Europe, Expert Says_我的网站

A |     【TechWeb】苹果公司近期对中国大陆市场销售的iPad、Mac及Vision Pro产品价格进行了调整，其中，Mac产品线起售价涨幅显著，从900元至3500元不等；iPad系列起售价涨幅在800元至1800元之间；而Vision Pro的售价也从此前的29999元上调至31999元，涨幅达2000元。尽管当前在售的iPhone 17系列尚未调价，但业界普遍预测，将于今年秋季发布的iPhone 18 Pro系列大概率跟进涨价。         消费者反应：超七成用户考虑推迟或放弃购买          一项针对消费者购买意愿的调查显示，苹果产品的此次涨价正在对销量产生“反噬”效应。    Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said Friday that the country might be forced to take some 50 million tonnes of grain off the market after this year’s crops fell short of the 130 million tonne target.,"I don't expect major problems in Europe in both categories of grain, for cattle breeding and for human consumption, since this year's crops were excellent despite the drought at the end of the season. The problems, if they arise, will be in the Middle East and Africa, and maybe in some countries of Southeast Asia," Gisele Fichefet said.,The only problem facing Europe, Fichefet said further, is a low nitrogen content of the wheat crop in many places, which means it will not be used in the baking industry but only for livestock feed.,Russia was the world's top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers in 2021, the most valued variety, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Many European and Central Asian countries rely on Russia for over 50% of their fertilizer supply, and shortages are expected to extend to next year.,Russia is also the world's largest exporter of wheat, with Ukraine in fifth place. Together, the two countries account for more than one-third of global cereal exports and a half of the world's sunflower oil export market.,FAO predicted in March that supply disruptions in Russia and Ukraine could affect some 50 countries that depend on the two for 30% or more of their wheat supply. Many of them are low-income countries in northern Africa, Asia and the Near East.,AfricaAnti-Russia Sanctions Left Africa Without Access to Grain and Fertilisers, African Union Chief Says3 June, 11:13 GMT,Fichefet said it was "not so much a price problem, as a delivery issue" because price fluctuations had not been more than 20% up or down since the start of the Ukrainian conflict. A UN-brokered deal among Russia, Ukraine and Turkey has at least temporarily stabilized the prices. That may change if Russia slashes grain exports, she predicted.,The West has repeatedly accused Russia of undermining global food security. Moscow argues that Western sanctions on financial transactions and maritime transportation have disrupted global food supply chains, curbing the access of Russian food products and fertilizers to markets. The deal, agreed in Istanbul in July, seeks to facilitate the transport of grain and foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports, while simultaneously addressing limits on Russian exports.。具体来看，38%的受访者表示将延长换机周期，14%的人会选择等待降价促销时再购买。另有12%的用户直接表示将放弃购买苹果产品，9%的受访者则计划转向购买入门款等价格更低的机型。仅有9%的用户表示涨价不会影响其购买决策，将继续支持苹果产品。

B |          一位网友的评论反映了普遍心态：虽仍青睐苹果，但将调整换机节奏，从以往的“一年一换”或“三年一换”，调整为两到三年换一次手机，五到六年换一次电脑，以应对持续的成本压力。         成本压力持续，内存涨价成长期趋势          分析机构Aletheia Capital在报告中指出，上游存储成本上涨是推动此次调价的关键因素。报告预测，2026年第三季度DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）均价预计将再涨30%，第四季度将继续上涨10%至15%。

C | 更深层的变化在于，随着AI算力需求爆发，内存在AI硬件系统中的价值占比预计到2027年将从目前的约40%升至超过70%。这种供给侧的结构性失衡已非短期扰动，而是一项长期存在的行业趋势。

D |          因此，消费级内存的涨价趋势仍将持续，不排除苹果后续根据成本变化进一步上调产品售价的可能。对于消费者而言，硬件涨价的压力可能会在较长时间内持续存在。

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Published on:08:58:24