傲慢与偏见

Analyst Says Scottish IndyRef Re-Run Blocked by BoJo Could be Risky for SNP_我的网站

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一 | 当复古像素拼豆遇上千年传统陶艺，一场新旧融合的手作消费新风潮正在杭州悄然爆发。这两天，一款结合像素拼豆玩法与陶瓷烧制工艺的拼豆陶瓷杯DIY项目，席卷杭州各大陶艺手作工作室，成为年轻人解压休闲、打卡探店的新晋热门。 Another Scottish independence referendum could be risky for the regional government in Edinburgh, an academic and analyst has said.,Embattled British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote to Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and first minister in the devolved administration, on Wednesday evening to deny her latest demand for a re-run of the 2014 plebiscite.,"As our country faces unprecedented challenges at home and abroad, I cannot agree that now is the time to return to a question, which was clearly answered by the people of Scotland in 2014," Johnson wrote.,Sturgeon announced in June that Scotland's Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain — whose cabinet post combines the powers of the Westminster government's attorney general and the director of public prosecutions — would ask the Supreme Court to rule on the legality of holding another vote without necessary approval from the Westminster Parliament.,The nationalist leader claimed Scots would vote to separate from England — where many of them work — out of a desire to reverse Brexit and opposition to 12 years of government by the Conservative Party, which holds few Parliamentary seats in Scotland.,Dr Roslyn Fuller, director of the non-profit think tank Solonian Democracy Institute and the author of the book Beasts and Gods: How Democracy Changed Its Meaning and Lost Its Purpose told Sputnik that while pushing for a repeat referendum was central to the SNP's identity, it was also a dangerous gamble.,She said SNP's planned vote next year would only be "advisory" and "non-binding", but that it also took the party back to its basic reason for being.,"I think the SNP has the same challenges that many other independence parties like Sinn Fein or the Bloc Quebecois have — they succeed in attaining power in their own region which forces them to go from a single-issue party (independence) to develop a multitude of other policies that voters then judge them on," the academic said.,"They end up working within the system they intended to break away from and this can dilute their message," Fuller added. "Sturgeon and the SNP generally need to be seen to be continuing to pursue independence to satisfy a certain portion of their voters, and this is a way to achieve that".,Running the plebiscite — with legal sanction — and winning would give the SNP a boost going in to the next general election, due by the end of January 2025 but potentially much sooner, the analyst believes.,Even if the vote was blocked, Sturgeon has already stated that she would consider the next general election a de-facto referendum on independence, she points out. "So again, it would serve to drive out the vote for the SNP and try to focus attention on this one issue (independence) that differentiates them from the other major parties.","The only really risky situation for her would be if the Court did greenlight such an advisory referendum and it failed at the polls," Fuller stressed.,The 'Yes' campaign was leading in the polls in the run-up to the 2014 referendum, but ultimately the 10 per cent of voters declaring themselves undecided went overwhelmingly to the 'No' camp. Scotland voted by 55 per cent to 45 to remain part of the UK.,The key unknown factor, according to Fuller, is who succeeds Johnson as next Tory leader an PM.,"My personal feeling is that we'll be seeing a turn of the Tories back to more establishment politics with likely quite different policies," she says. "I think they ran Johnson as a counter to Corbyn, but that job is done now that the Labour party has turned back to its own centre.",Fuller argues that such a major change of political direction would be significant enough that a snap general election should be called to seek a new mandate to govern. She says the SNP's performance at the polls would be crucial to their referendum bid.,Prof: Scottish Independence Requires Serious Debate Amid Soaring Cost of Living in UK16 June, 12:47 GMT,Legal Avenues,The think-tank director believes Sturgeon's appeal to the Supreme Court shows the SNP is anxious keep its latest bid for a referendum on firm legal ground, since its declared pretext for the vote is so Scotland can re-apply for membership of the European Union (EU). But she cautioned that would open "a whole can of worms.","Firstly, it clouds the entire idea of independence. It Scotland were to re-join the EU, which is heading towards getting rid of unanimity voting, the average Scot would have significantly less power than they do if they remain in the UK," she says.,"It is not 'independence' in any actual meaning of the word," Fuller stressed. "How do you run an 'independence' referendum on the understanding that if you win, you are going to join a larger, even less democratic, entity?",But more importantly, an unsanctioned 'indyref' would put the SNP in the same bracket as the coalition of Catalan nationalist parties who held an unofficial plebiscite in 2017, in which only supporters of independence bothered to vote. The political organisers found themselves arrested and charged or, in the case of then-regional president Carles Puigdemont, fleeing abroad as a fugitive.,"There are countries in the EU, like Spain, that are very much against separatist referendums, so getting some kind of legal blessing for this is probably necessary to retain their support," Fuller says.。像素跨界陶艺爆火体验经济带旺线下消费近期，“拼豆陶瓷杯”强势刷屏各大社交平台，像素风可乐杯、奶茶杯、直筒素色杯等创意作品收获海量点赞，掀起全民打卡热潮。博主“陈二沟”7月26日发布的相关体验内容率先引爆流量，相关短视频迅速登顶热搜，带动杭州线下陶艺工坊客流暴涨，定制白色拼豆陶瓷素坯更是一度供不应求。

二 | 流量加持下，杭州各大陶艺门店快速跟进上新。短短一周内，杭州多家陶艺工坊全面上线拼豆陶瓷DIY项目——操作台整齐陈列带标准网格凹槽的陶瓷素坯，涵盖高矮款水杯、创意拼豆盘等多款品类。无需顾客自行打线、起稿、定网格，省去新手烦琐的前期准备工作，大幅降低手工创作门槛。整体玩法简单易上手，新手也能轻松拿捏。消费者只需对照现成的高清像素图纸，用釉下彩颜料逐格填色，可爱卡通形象、热门影视IP、简约像素线条等各类创意图案，都能快速复刻成型，数小时即可完成专属手绘创作。

三 | 价格方面，门店客单价稳定在90-130元，套餐包含专属素坯、全套绘画颜料、一对一专业教学及高温烧制服务，性价比突出，精准吸引学生、年轻上班族两大核心消费群体。不少消费者体验过后，还会主动尝试传统陶瓷彩绘、陶艺捏塑等项目，有效带动门店多元消费升级。“传统手绘陶瓷对绘画功底有一定要求，很多新手怕画不好、翻车，体验一次就放弃。

四 | ”绘釉猫萧山万象汇店店主言言介绍，拼豆陶瓷杯彻底打破这一痛点，将复杂的手绘创作简化为轻松的填格子游戏，零基础也能做出精致成品，上线不久就稳居门店爆款榜单。火爆的市场热度，让多家门店出现预约爆满、供不应求的情况。小小树工坊桥西街里店等多家门店甚至发布“先到先得，不接受预留”的规则，依旧挡不住消费者的打卡热情。

五 | 不少网友表示，原本计划专程奔赴景德镇体验同款项目，如今杭州本地门店即可体验，省去长途奔波，成为周末闺蜜出行、休闲解压的优选项目。

六 | 区别于市面一次性塑料拼豆挂件，拼豆陶瓷杯完成填色创作后，会经过自然晾干、高温釉下烧制多重工序，成品防水耐用、质感细腻，可日常饮水使用。独一无二的手工专属属性，也让它成为小众走心的生日礼物、纪念日礼品，实用性与纪念价值兼备。“完全不会画画，全程沉浸式填色特别治愈，解压效果拉满！”消费者戚小戚分享了自己的体验感受。她表示，传统拼豆需要手持镊子逐一摆放颗粒，耗时费力还容易出错，而拼豆陶瓷的网格填色玩法简单直观，新手零压力，完美适配普通消费者的手工体验需求。爆红背后小众玩法赋能新消费风口拼豆陶瓷的爆火并非偶然。作为社交平台老牌顶流手作品类，拼豆像素风常年深耕年轻消费市场，全网相关话题浏览量突破百亿，积攒了庞大的年轻受众基础，年轻人对像素美学的接受度和喜爱度极高。其实早在2025年，就有手工爱好者尝试在陶瓷杯上手动画网格、创作像素图案，但纯手工绘制网格耗时耗力，单杯创作耗时长达一下午，且手绘线条参差不齐、规整度不足，成品质感大打折扣。景德镇设计师精准捕捉这一市场痛点，创新推出预制标准网格的陶瓷素坯，实现标准化量产供给，成功完成从塑料拼豆到日用陶瓷的跨界升级，让小众手工玩法走向大众消费市场。随着风潮持续升温，网上涌现出各类“野生”自制玩法。有博主分享，部分消费者为节省成本，自带装修网格布铺垫在瓷盘上作画。对此，不少网友纷纷提醒该玩法存在安全隐患：市面普通装修网格布大多含有玻璃纤维，手工操作过程中，纤维极易扎入皮肤，存在安全风险，并不适合手工DIY创作。火爆消费热潮的背后，拼豆陶瓷体验也存在一定消费门槛。区别于即做即取的手工项目，拼豆陶瓷作品完成手绘后，需经过静置晾干、窑炉高温烧制、冷却修整等多道工序，整体成品交付周期约一周。遇到门店订单高峰期，部分消费者需要等待三至四周才能拿到成品。但漫长的等待并未劝退年轻消费者。在情绪消费、体验消费盛行的当下，年轻人休闲消费不再只看重结果，更注重创作过程的参与感、治愈感和独一无二的专属价值。业内人士表示，拼豆陶瓷的出圈，是两大热门手工业态的完美融合。它将解压治愈的像素拼豆玩法与厚重的传统陶瓷工艺相结合，既抓住了社交平台的流量风口，贴合年轻人的审美与消费需求，也为传统陶艺行业打破了受众局限、更新了业态模式，让千年陶瓷手艺以年轻化、轻量化、趣味化的姿态，走进都市年轻人的日常生活，为传统手作体验行业注入全新活力。（实习生樊思羽记者杨伊琳）。