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萌学园

Economist explores human stories behind development_我的网站

初恋日记

一 |

Zhou Jiang speaks at an event. Photo: Courtesy of Zhou Jiang
Zhou Jiang, a researcher at the Sichuan Academy of Social Sciences, has a favorite book: White Deer Tableland or Bai Lu Yuan by renowned writer Chen Zhongshi.
As vice president of the Regional Science Association of China (RSAC), Zhou told the Global Times that a lifetime of reading has profoundly shaped the way he sees and understands the world. It ultimately led him to a career in research and academia, where he teaches and pursues scholarly work.
Since earning his PhD in economics in 2000, he has devoted himself to the study of regional science and economics, a field that demands a constant crossing of disciplinary boundaries, drawing on the fields of geography, sociology, history, and ecology among others.
"Reading has kept alive my sense of curiosity and taught me to ask questions with patience and persistence: Where do disparities in regional development come from? How do policies affect different groups in society? And how can a region pursue both efficiency and equity so that development is not merely effective, but also imbued with a greater sense of humanity and warmth?" Zhou noted.
Founded in 1991, RSAC is a national academic society dedicated to advancing domestic and international academic exchange and cooperation, providing consulting services on spatial planning, urbanization, and regional development, and offering intellectual support for China's modernization drive.
The 57-year-old researcher noted that reading has empowered him in two distinct ways.
"The first is discernment. When confronted with a complex issue, I try not to settle for a simple conclusion. Instead, I make an effort to understand its broader context, how it has unfolded, and the perspectives of the different people involved," he said.
"The second is a sense of inner steadiness. Setbacks are an inevitable part of both life and work. Good books remind us that hardship is never ours alone to bear; countless people before us have faced circumstances more difficult than our own, made difficult choices, and found the strength to carry on. Reading cannot solve every problem for us, but it can help us remain calm when challenges arise, giving us the clarity and resilience that allow us not to panic or give up too easily," he said.
Historical depth

Each time Zhou returns to the White Deer Tableland, he finds something different in its pages.
"When I first read it as a young person, I was drawn primarily to the characters and the twists and turns of their lives. Later, as I began researching regional economics, I found myself paying closer attention to the changes in the land, the countryside, families and social order presented in the story. Now, approaching 60, I have come to appreciate more deeply the choices the characters make, the constraints they face, and the quiet perseverance they show amid the sweeping currents of their times," he said.
White Deer Tableland uses Bai Lu village in Northwest China's Shaanxi Province as a microcosm, tracing the feuds and intertwined fortunes of three generations of the Bai (literally meaning white) and Lu families. Through their stories, it captures more than half a century of sweeping historical change, from the final years of the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) to the 1970s and 1980s. The novel won the Mao Dun Literature Prize, one of China's top literature awards, in 1997.
Zhou prefers literary works with historical depth and a keen eye for social change.
Regional economics may appear to be concerned with the spatial distribution of industries, population and resources, but at its heart, it is about how people live on a particular piece of land, and why some places flourish while others decline, he noted.
In this sense, literature and history are more than pastimes beyond professional research. They often help him understand the historical context, cultural traditions and social mentality that lie behind economic data, he said.
When reading novels, Zhou said that he often pays close attention to the relationship between people and the places they inhabit: How the land shapes the local character, how transportation transforms a region, and how shifts in industry reshape families and villages. Such details may not offer a direct conclusion, but they broaden a researcher's perspective. They also serve as a reminder that research should look beyond growth rates and statistical indicators to consider the sense of fulfillment experienced by ordinary people and the dignity of human beings.
Understanding ourselves
Once, while tidying his study, he came across a book filled with notes he had scribbled in his early years. Among them was a question that particularly caught his attention: "In the face of sweeping changes in the times and profound social transformation, what can a person truly determine for himself?"
Looking at those words he had written in his youth was like coming face to face with the person he had been decades ago.
Reading is not simply the act of understanding a book; it is also a record of a person's own growth, he said. The same book can reveal something entirely different when read at different stages of life.
When we are young, we turn to books in search of answers; but when we become seasoned, we read more to understand life, to understand others, and ultimately, to better understand ourselves, Zhou said.
In this era of fragmented information, AI can help people access information quickly, organize materials, and gain a basic understanding of unfamiliar fields. Yet deep reading, Zhou said, allows people to see how a conclusion is reached — what evidence supports it, where its boundaries lie, and what alternative interpretations it may invite.
What truly shapes a person, after all, is not how much information they have browsed, but the words that have made them pause and reflect - and the words that have remained with them for many years, he added.
。 IT时报记者郝俊慧夏日炎炎，比天气更热的是AI。

二 | 7月20日，2026世界人工智能大会（WAIC 2026）的展馆里，有两个词到处可见：智能体和Token。不少展台演示着类似的场景：某个智能体如何替人完成一段工作，比如读财报、写代码、打开网页…… 然而，《IT时报》记者的一个困惑始终无法被解答：如何衡量这些智能体的价值？Token烧完之后，企业到底得到了什么？ “用Token收费，是大模型公司一种很‘狡猾’的做法，它不为自己的错误买单，你的钱还被花了。”2026世界人工智能大会期间，在容联云举办“协同进化·价值共生——企业级Agent的进化与商业化落地”的主题论坛上，亿欧董事长王彬坦言。容联云产研中心副总经理唐兴才引用的一组数据与之相印证：全球88%的企业已经部署了Agent，但其中不到10%的Agent真正为企业创造了可量化的业务价值。论坛上，从Token定价模式到效果付费，从技术指标到业务闭环，围绕“价值”重新校准的AI评价体系成为嘉宾热议的话题。当日，容联云宣布全栈产品Agent化，涵盖Voice Agent、质检Agent、辅助Agent、协呼Agent、CRM辅助Agent、智能客服Agent、私域运营Agent等完整产品矩阵，实现对企业营销、销售、服务、质检、运营全场景的纵深覆盖。 Token黑洞价值缺席现阶段的企业级Agent往往有一个核心矛盾：Token在加速消耗，价值却持续缺席。

三 | 唐兴才描述了一个典型场景：企业引入AI编程工具后，如果不加以节制和规划使用，单个程序员的Token消耗成本可能是自身人力成本的10倍。许多企业初期以Token消耗量作为智能化程度的度量指标，直到财务报表出来，才发现成本膨胀与价值产出之间完全脱钩。

四 | 在现有按Token消耗计费的模式下，AI服务方不承担产出质量风险，所有试错成本全部由企业端承担。在商业模式中，这是一个典型的错位：供给方按消耗收费，消耗越多赚得越多，却与使用方的价值无关，优化Token成本的动力显然不足。唐兴才也举例，一个语音Agent的意图识别准确率达到95%，但如果它无法推动订单转化、无法缩短工单了结时长、无法提升复购率，95%这个数字对企业经营者而言没有实际意义。 “关注业务闭环应关注的是业务指标，订单转化率、工单了结时长、运营覆盖人数与GMV贡献。”唐兴才指出。但目前来看，技术指标和业务指标之间是断层的，需要工程化能力和行业Know-how来建立桥梁。王彬将这一现象归结为评价体系的缺位。他提出VPT（Value Per Token）模型，主张以单位Token创造的商业产出来衡量AI的实际生产力，推动智能体从“Token消费者”向“价值生产者”跃迁。这一框架的核心逻辑是：Token的定价权不应掌握在算力提供方手中，而应由其对业务结果的实际贡献来决定。效果付费共担风险当评价体系从技术指标转向业务指标，收费模式的重构就成为必然。容联云解决方案中心总经理闫玉华在论坛圆桌环节透露，容联云今年正在探索一种新的业务模式——效果付费或成果付费，尤其涉及AI新技术和新场景，通过共担风险的方式化解客户的投入顾虑。效果付费的前提，是Agent能够在特定场景中实现业务闭环，产出可被量化的业务结果。今年6月，容联云发布了Voice Agent。数据显示，在银行信贷催收与营销场景中，日均通话超过2万通，完成率94%。以可比口径计算，人工坐席月成本为5000至8000元，日均处理话务150至300通；Voice Agent月成本2000至3000元，日均处理话务量1万通以上，而且24小时运转，服务标准统一。当Agent的产出可以精确到通话量、完成率、回款金额这些业务指标时，效果付费就具备了可操作性的商业模式。私域运营Agent则提供了另一个维度。一个人力运营人员管理几千到几万用户已是上限，而Agent可管理几十万乃至上百万用户，容联云的私域运营Agent已独立管理超8万私域客户，经营规模增长87%。在效果付费框架下，这一数字可以直接映射为GMV增量，成为定价的依据。

五 | 多点数智副总裁张宇的定价逻辑也很清晰，他以海外一个大超市客户为例，生鲜年销售额三四十亿元，损耗率8%至9%，通过补货智能体，哪怕损耗率只降低1个百分点，一年就节省数千万元，AI系统的投入成本相比之下几乎可以忽略。如果Agent替代的是一个具体的岗位、承担的是一个具体的KPI，它的定价就不再取决于消耗了多少Token，而是取决于创造了多少可衡量的业务增量。企业级Agent的价值锚点企业级Agent的价值锚点究竟在哪里？根据容联云这几年的实践，唐兴才总结认为，数据连通、人机协同、业务闭环缺一不可。

六 | 数据连通是价值锚点的地基。企业内部的Agent平台与CRM、ERP等业务系统长期割裂，Agent无法理解订单、合同、工单等业务对象的语义，也无法将作业过程中的知识与经验沉淀为可复用的资产。容联云的解法是在Agent与底层系统之间架设数据语义层，将业务数据抽象和实体化。业务闭环是价值锚点的度量刻度。唐兴才认为，企业级Agent有四个阶段的进化路径：单点能力（Copilot）、闭环任务、人机协作、自主业务闭环。前三个阶段，Agent的价值仍然依附于人的判断和执行；只有到第四阶段，Agent自主完成从订餐到信审的完整业务链路，其对业务结果的贡献才具备独立可量化的条件。容联云将全栈产品Agent化，本质上是寻找那些可以实现业务闭环的场景，将Agent的考核从技术指标体系切换到业务指标体系。行业Know-how是价值锚点的壁垒，多点数智在零售领域积累了10年的数字化底盘（Dmall OS）和智能中枢（D-BRAIN），因此，其Agent集群能够在选品、定价、补货、巡检等核心环节，输出可量化的经营结果。简而言之，企业级Agent的价值不在通用模型的参数规模，而在垂直行业知识与业务流程的深度融合。论坛上，嘉宾们形成的共识是，Agent 规模化核心突破口在于深度绑定企业客服、风控等核心业务，而技术幻觉、业务组织抵触是规模化两大核心壁垒。